Nature Communications (Sep 2021)
Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
- Rachel J. Oidtman,
- Elisa Omodei,
- Moritz U. G. Kraemer,
- Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela,
- Erica Cruz-Rivera,
- Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón,
- Myriam Patricia Cifuentes,
- Luz Emilse Rincon,
- Viviana Cañon,
- Pedro de Alarcon,
- Guido España,
- John H. Huber,
- Sarah C. Hill,
- Christopher M. Barker,
- Michael A. Johansson,
- Carrie A. Manore,
- Robert C. Reiner, Jr.,
- Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer,
- Amir S. Siraj,
- Enrique Frias-Martinez,
- Manuel García-Herranz,
- T. Alex Perkins
Affiliations
- Rachel J. Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame
- Elisa Omodei
- UNICEF
- Moritz U. G. Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
- Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela
- Instituto Nacional de Salud
- Erica Cruz-Rivera
- Instituto Nacional de Salud
- Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón
- Instituto Nacional de Salud
- Myriam Patricia Cifuentes
- Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social
- Luz Emilse Rincon
- Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social
- Viviana Cañon
- UNICEF
- Pedro de Alarcon
- LUCA Telefonica Data Unit
- Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame
- John H. Huber
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame
- Sarah C. Hill
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
- Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicince, University of California
- Michael A. Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Carrie A. Manore
- Information Systems and Modeling (A-1), Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Robert C. Reiner, Jr.
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer
- Department of Medicine, University of California
- Amir S. Siraj
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame
- Enrique Frias-Martinez
- Telefonica Research
- Manuel García-Herranz
- UNICEF
- T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 12,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 11
Abstract
Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.
