Russia in Contemporary Architecture of International Relations: Forecast Scenarios and Limits of Acceptable Restructuring

Abstract

Introduction. The article is devoted to the characterization and substantiation of the basic principles and priority areas of the foreign policy activity of the Russian Federation in the context of the transformation of the modern system of international relations. Scenario approaches to the development of the Russian state and its functional role in the context of increased conflict potential between countries of Western and non-Western civilizations that are most frequently articulated within the political science discourse are interpreted. The study's relevance stems from the need to reconsider the dominant grounds for restructuring the contemporary world order, which lacks security and stability, while compromising the development interests of most states and societies at national, regional, and global levels. Methods and materials. The authors rely on the conceptual statements of the political organization of the contemporary world, developed by M.M. Lebedeva within the framework of a system approach. In identifying the sources of global turbulence experienced by the current system of international relations, the theoretical constructions by I. Wallerstein, S. Huntington, G. Kissinger, and O.V. Gaman-Golutvina were used. The elucidation of the functional specifics of Russia as a civilization state in the system of the world order of the past and present is based on a civilizational approach. The empirical base of the article was the normative and legal documents of the Russian Federation and the results of surveys conducted by leading centers: VCIOM, FOM, and Levada Center (this organization is included in the unified register of individuals and organizations recognized as foreign agents in the Russian Federation). Analysis and results. In the course of the study, the dominant factors that contribute to the radicalization of the conflict potential of the existing system of international relations were revealed and interpreted. The relationship between the escalation of the conflict between the Western bloc countries and Russia, the multifaceted objectification of Russophobia in all spheres of life, and the strategic vectors of Russia’s foreign policy formulated in The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (2023) is traced. At the same time, attention is focused not only on the principles of the new Russian statehood and the place of the Russian Federation in the contemporary world but also on the historical continuity of Russia as a civilization state. Authors’ contribution. S.A. Pankratov developed the theoretical basis of the study, analyzed the dominant trends in the transformation of the modern system of international relations, and carried out the general scientific editing of the article. E.V. Klinshans summarized and analyzed the empirical data related to the priorities of the implementation of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and formulated the main conclusions of the work.