Risk Topology Construction Method of Flight Manipulation in Turbulent-Windshear Conditions Based on Multivariate Copula Theory

Abstract

Complex weather conditions, especially turbulent-windshear conditions, have severe effects on the landing safety of an aircraft. Based on a distributed human-machine-environment real-time simulation system, virtual landing simulations in turbulent-windshear conditions were carried out using the Monte Carlo method. By analyzing the simulation results, it was determined that the flight parameters that significantly affect the landing safety of an aircraft are the sideslip angle β, descent height ΔH, and angle of attack α. Based on multivariate copula theory, the statistical characteristics of the extreme values of the flight parameters were analyzed, the unknown parameters in the distribution models were identified, and the goodness of fit was tested. The risk of landing in turbulent-windshear conditions was quantitatively evaluated. By applying the quantitative risk evaluation method proposed in this study, the risk topology of flight manipulation for landing in turbulent-windshear conditions was constructed using the pitch angle variation Δθ, yaw angle variation Δψ, and flight distance L. The risk topology can not only greatly improve the situational awareness of the pilot but also provide comprehensive and intuitive guidance for removing aircraft from the impacts of wind-shear.

Keywords

• Complex system simulation
• Monte Carlo method
• turbulent-windshear
• multivariate copula theory
• manipulation risk topology