Verification of the Short-Term Forecast of the Wind Speed for the Gibara II Wind Farm according to the Prevailing Synoptic Situation Types

Abstract

In Cuba, short-term predictions have been developed for wind speed in the Gibara wind farms. These predictions present an mean absolute error (MAE) that sometimes exceeds 3 m/s. This study aims to verify the wind forecast generated by SisPI using the Synoptic Situation Types Catalog (TSS), a form of wind speed observation data provided by the anemometers installed in the wind turbine. The study period spanned from May 2020 to April 2021. For the evaluation, the metrics root mean square error (RMSE) and MAE were used, and the analysis was made in the rainy and dry seasons via the methodology developed by Patiño (2023). The results indicate that subtype 3 (extended undisturbed anticyclonic flow) had the highest frequency of cases between very good and good in both seasonal periods. Subtype 19 (migratory anticyclone in an advanced state of transformation) was the system that produced the worst results in the dry season, with the largest number of cases of bad wind speed forecasts. The results of the statistical bias (BIAS) and Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (R) were very favorable.

Keywords

• wind energy
• short-term forecast
• wind speed
• types of synoptic situations