A Novel Method for Predicting Rockburst Intensity Based on an Improved Unascertained Measurement and an Improved Game Theory

Abstract

A rockburst is a dynamic disaster that may result in considerable damage to mines and pose a threat to personnel safety. Accurately predicting rockburst intensity is critical for ensuring mine safety and reducing economic losses. First, based on the primary parameters that impact rockburst occurrence, the uniaxial compressive strength (σc), shear–compression ratio (σθ/σc), compression–tension ratio (σc/σt), elastic deformation coefficient (Wet), and integrity coefficient of the rock (KV) were selected as the evaluation indicators. Second, an improved game theory weighting method was introduced to address the problem that the combination coefficients calculated using the traditional game theory weighting method may result in negative values. The combination of indicator weights obtained using the analytic hierarchy process, the entropy method, and the coefficient of variation method were also optimized using improved game theory. Third, to address the problem of subjectivity in the traditional unascertained measurement using the confidence identification criterion, the distance discrimination idea of the Minkowski distance was used to optimize the identification criteria of the attributes in an unascertained measurement and was applied to rockburst prediction, and the obtained results were compared with the original confidence identification criterion and the original distance discrimination. The results show that the improved game theory weighting method used in this model makes the weight distribution more reasonable and reliable, which can provide a feasible reference for the weight determination method of rockburst prediction. When the Minkowski distance formula was introduced into the unascertained measurement for distance discrimination, the same rockburst predictions were obtained when the distance parameter (p) was equal to 1, 2, 3, and 4. The improved model was used to predict and analyze 40 groups of rockburst data with an accuracy of 92.5% and could determine the rockburst intensity class intuitively, providing a new way to analyze the rockburst intensity class rationally and quickly.

Keywords

• improving game theory
• combination weights
• improving unascertained measurement
• distance discrimination
• rockburst prediction