Sensitivity Analysis of Ship Manoeuvring Mathematical Models

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis is applied to ship manoeuvring mathematical models as a means of dealing with model uncertainties, and often leads to model simplifications. A rather standard 3DOF manoeuvring model was tuned with the available results of full-scale trials of a naval combatant and was further used as the reference model for sensitivity analysis. The present research was based on multiple perturbed simulations of the turning, zigzag and spiral manoeuvres. A salient feature of the present study is that the perturbations were applied to the total hydrodynamic forces and moments as well as separately to their characteristic parts, i.e., to the linear and nonlinear single-variable and coupled components. Another special feature is that the deviations of the perturbated responses were estimated not only considering the standard manoeuvring performance indices, but also through application of the Euclidean metric directly to the time histories and to the spiral curve. The performed analysis permitted the sensitivity of the model to be traced to various parameters and groups thereof. It was established that the highest sensitivity of the model was to linear and some nonlinear multivariable parameters, and the Euclidean metric permitted a more detailed analysis than that based only on standard discrete manoeuvring indices. The obtained results are expected to be useful in the application of system identification methods to typical inherently stable fast surface-displacement ships.

Keywords

• sensitivity analysis
• uncertainty
• indirect method
• <i>L</i>₂ metric
• manoeuvring model of a naval combatant