Predictors of 5-year Survival of Elderly with Hypertension. A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Given the high prevalence of hypertension in older adults, this study was conducted to identify the factors affecting the 5-year survival of older people with hypertension. Materials and Methods: In this cohort study, individuals aged 60 and over living in Amirkola, north of Iran who were diagnosed with hypertension were followed up for 5 years, and the effect of various factors on their survival was analyzed. Results: Among 1439 older people, 892 individuals (61.99%) had hypertension. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] =1.052, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.019–1.086, P = 0.002), diabetes mellitus (aHR = 2.166, 95% CI = 1.398–3.354, P = 0.001), serum creatinine (aHR = 2.163, 95% CI = 1.391–3.363, P = 0.001), female gender (aHR = 0.460, 95% CI = 0.276–0.766, P = 0.003), body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 (aHR = 0.386, 95% CI = 0.212–0.701, P = 0.002), physical activity score >150 (aHR = 0.382, 95% CI = 0.162–0.898, P = 0.027), each one unit increase of social support score (aHR = 0.914, 95% CI = 0.861–0.970, P = 0.003), and instrumental functional ability score (aHR = 0.907, 95% CI = 0.843–0.974, P = 0.009) showed a significant effect on 5-year survival of older people. Conclusion: Multiple factors (such as age, gender, social support, lifestyle behaviors, and comorbidities including diabetes mellitus and renal function) might predict the 5-year survival of the elderly with hypertension. They should be considered in health-care package of these patients.

Keywords

• elderly
• hypertension
• mortality
• survival