Modeling and forecasting of lifetime milk production in Hariana cattle

Abstract

The present study was conducted on performance records of 648 Hariana cattle with respect to first lactation and lifetime traits spread over a period of 57 years (1962-2018) from DUVASU farm, Mathura and 23 years (1995– 2017) from State livestock farm Babugarh, Hapur. Lifetime production traits, viz. Lifetime 2 Milk Yield (LT2MY), Lifetime 3 Milk Yield (LT3MY), Lifetime 4 Milk Yield (LT4MY) and Lifetime 5 Milk Yield (LT5MY) were predicted by multiple linear regression analysis. Step-wise regression procedure was used to predict the lifetime milk yield from first lactation traits, viz. age at first calving (AFC), first calving interval (FCI) and first lactation total milk yield (FLTMY). The optimum models were selected with the help of Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Mallow’s conceptual predictive value and variance inflation factor. The models with lower AIC, BIC and RMSE values and with higher co-efficient of determination were selected as optimum. The optimal models for lifetime production traits, viz. LT2MY, LT3MY, LT4MY and LT5MY with co-efficient of determination were 75.46%, 66.63%, 59.4% and 55.03%, respectively.

Keywords

• Coefficient of determination, FCI, FDP, Hariana cattle, Regression