π-Economy (Apr 2024)
Dynamics of import dependence of Russian regions: resistance to autarky
Abstract
The spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation aims for a balanced and sustainable development of the country focused on accelerating the pace of economic and technological development. The Government of the Russian Federation is implementing accelerated sectoral import substitution measures. However, the unprecedented sanctions pressure and the growing threat of secondary sanctions in 2022–2023 rise questions about the risks of regional recessions towards an autarkic model of economy rather than a globalist one. The purpose of the study is to assess the retrospective dynamics of regional import dependence, evaluate the trend and risks of the formation of an autarkic model of economy in the Russian regions. The study was conducted on the basis of panel data for the country as a whole and the Russian regions for the period 2013–2021. To estimate the import dependence of the regional economy, the share of import in GRP, measured in US dollars at the end of the corresponding year, is used, which is adequate to the modern realities of dominance of transport, machinery, equipment and products, necessary for industry specialization, in the structure of import. The results of the study show that after the first wave of sanctions in 2014, the trend of replacing the German direction of supplies with machinery from China began to develop. Even with growing geopolitical risks, regions were in no hurry to curtail international trade. Moreover, regions with high shares of import tend to have highly developed industries. Even with the increasing import dependence in the period under review, many of them managed to successfully cope with the sanctions challenge and showed the growth of industrial production in the region above the Russian average. These circumstances, in our view, indicate support for the “open model” of the economy, which is firmly rooted in the economy of the Russian regions and should be supported by domestic investment in the projects of technological sovereignty, development of human capital in order to create competitive export-oriented products using domestic equipment. This would reduce import dependence through export-oriented import substitution. Further research could study problems caused by the import of services and the accessibility of qualified services for the activities of regional economic entities.
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