Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns

Abstract

Abstract Shifting precipitation regimes are a well-documented and pervasive consequence of climate change. Subsistence-oriented communities worldwide can identify changes in rainfall patterns that most affect their lives. Here we scrutinize the importance of human-based rainfall observations (collated through a literature review spanning from 1994 to 2013) as climate metrics and the relevance of instrument-based precipitation indices to subsistence activities. For comparable time periods (1955-2005), changes observed by humans match well with instrumental records at same locations for well-established indices of rainfall (72% match), drought (76%), and extreme rainfall (81%), demonstrating that we can bring together human and instrumental observations. Many communities (1114 out of 1827) further identify increased variability and unpredictability in the start, end, and continuity of rainy seasons, all of which disrupt the cropping calendar, particularly in the Tropics. These changes in rainfall patterns and predictability are not fully captured by existing indices, and their social-ecological impacts are still understudied.