A reliable method of wind power fluctuation smoothing strategy based on multidimensional non‐linear exponential smoothing short‐term forecasting

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates the multi‐dimensional non‐linear exponential smoothing prediction method under different weight coefficients, so as to realize the short‐term prediction of the original wind power output. Based on the current research on wind power fluctuation prediction, this paper firstly proposes a new multi‐dimensional nonlinear exponential smoothing prediction method. Based on different weight coefficients, the corresponding short‐term forecast volatility is obtained. Then, the wavelet packet decomposition method is used to further realize the secondary smoothing of the prediction wind power fluctuations. Hybrid energy storage system (HESS) plays an important role in wind power fluctuation suppression from different frequency bands. However, the traditional fixed frequency power allocation method significantly degrades the performance of the accuracy of the algorithm. Therefore, this paper proposes a frequency conversion entropy strategy, which combines energy value with wavelet packet decomposition. By calculating the energy components of different frequency bands, the fluctuation can be divided effectively. Finally, simulation and experiment discussions show that the proposed algorithm in this paper can realize the power allocation effectively compared to the traditional one. And it further verifies the feasibility and reliability of the strategy proposed in this work.