Climate Change and Tidal Hydrodynamics of Guadalquivir Estuary and Doñana Marshes: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

The Doñana Protected Area, Western Europe’s largest protected wetland and UNESCO World Heritage Site, is of great importance for the Spanish biodiversity. Despite its ecological value, there is a noticeable scarcity of scientific and technical information about its hydrology and expected climate change effects, as highlighted by several authors. This article reviews the existing research on the Guadalquivir River and Doñana National Park, examining the interplay between hydrodynamics, climate change scenarios, and the potential impact of the removal of the current dike which was built to limit tidal flooding. In this context, the hydrodynamic changes predicted by a hydrodynamic model were examined under both present (including the current mean sea level and the presence of the dike) and predicted future conditions (encompassing a mean sea level rise of 0.84 m and the removal of the dike). These hydrodynamic changes were assessed in terms of the maximum predicted water levels, mean velocity, amplitude, and phase of M2 and M4 tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, and tidal prims. The results reveal that the removal of the dike and a sea level rise will have a significant impact on the protected area, resulting in the complete flooding of the Doñana national marshes during spring tides. Such changes could have negative impacts, as increased environmental alterations would require more demanding adaptation measures.

Keywords

• Delft3D
• climate change
• maximum water levels
• harmonic analysis
• tidal prism