Machine learning based metabolomic and genetic profiles for predicting multiple brain phenotypes

Abstract

Abstract Background It is unclear regarding the association between metabolomic state/genetic risk score(GRS) and brain volumes and how much of variance of brain volumes is attributable to metabolomic state or GRS. Methods Our analysis included 8635 participants (52.5% females) aged 40–70 years at baseline from the UK Biobank. Metabolomic profiles were assessed using nuclear magnetic resonance at baseline (between 2006 and 2010). Brain volumes were measured using magnetic resonance imaging between 2014 and 2019. Machine learning was used to generate metabolomic state and GRS for each of 21 brain phenotypes. Results Individuals in the top 20% of metabolomic state had 2.4–35.7% larger volumes of 21 individual brain phenotypes compared to those in the bottom 20% while the corresponding number for GRS ranged from 1.5 to 32.8%. The proportion of variance of brain volumes (R [2]) explained by the corresponding metabolomic state ranged from 2.2 to 19.4%, and the corresponding number for GRS ranged from 0.8 to 8.7%. Metabolomic state provided no or minimal additional prediction values of brain volumes to age and sex while GRS provided moderate additional prediction values (ranging from 0.8 to 8.8%). No significant interplay between metabolomic state and GRS was observed, but the association between metabolomic state and some regional brain volumes was stronger in men or younger individuals. Individual metabolomic profiles including lipids and fatty acids were strong predictors of brain volumes. Conclusions In conclusion, metabolomic state is strongly associated with multiple brain volumes but provides minimal additional prediction value of brain volumes to age + sex. Although GRS is a weaker contributor to brain volumes than metabolomic state, it provides moderate additional prediction value of brain volumes to age + sex. Our findings suggest metabolomic state and GRS are important predictors for multiple brain phenotypes.

Keywords

• Metabolomic profiles
• Metabolomic state
• Genetic risk score
• Brain phenotype
• Prediction value
• Moderation analysis