Quantitative Risk Assessment of Cascading Events Triggered by Floods

Abstract

NaTech (natural-technological) events caused by the impact of floods on industrial facilities may lead to major accidents following damages to structures and equipment. In this study, we explored the quantitative assessment of NaTech accidents triggered by floods. A specific methodology was developed, adopting equipment vulnerability models aimed at determining the failure frequency of equipment affected by flooding. A reference case study was analysed, taking into account a flood scenario impacting on an industrial facility. Risk results with and without flood-triggered NaTech scenarios were compared, determining the influence of NaTech scenarios on the overall risk profile.