Fundamental Research (Mar 2021)
Estimating the time interval between transmission generations and the presymptomatic period by contact tracing surveillance data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China
- Zhongxing Ding,
- Kai Wang,
- Mingwang Shen,
- Kai Wang,
- Shi Zhao,
- Wenyu Song,
- Rui Li,
- Zhongjie Li,
- Liping Wang,
- Ganzhu Feng,
- Zhiliang Hu,
- Hongxia Wei,
- Yanni Xiao,
- Changjun Bao,
- Jianli Hu,
- Liguo Zhu,
- Yong Li,
- Xufeng Chen,
- Yi Yin,
- Weiming Wang,
- Yongli Cai,
- Zhihang Peng,
- Hongbing Shen
Affiliations
- Zhongxing Ding
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Kai Wang
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geriatrics, Department of Geriatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Mingwang Shen
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China
- Kai Wang
- Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
- Shi Zhao
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 999077, Hong Kong, China
- Wenyu Song
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Rui Li
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China
- Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
- Liping Wang
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
- Ganzhu Feng
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Zhiliang Hu
- The Second Hospital of Nanjing, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing 210003, China
- Hongxia Wei
- The Second Hospital of Nanjing, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing 210003, China
- Yanni Xiao
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China
- Changjun Bao
- Institute for Prevention and Control of Acute Infectious Diseases, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
- Jianli Hu
- Institute for Prevention and Control of Acute Infectious Diseases, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
- Liguo Zhu
- Institute for Prevention and Control of Acute Infectious Diseases, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
- Yong Li
- Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Xufeng Chen
- Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Yi Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Weiming Wang
- School of Mathematics Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
- Yongli Cai
- School of Mathematics Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China
- Zhihang Peng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China; Corresponding authors.
- Hongbing Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China; Corresponding authors.
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 1,
no. 2
pp. 104 – 110
Abstract
The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a great assault to public health. Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons, such as isolation. This study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation (TG) and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19, and compare the fitting effects of TG and serial interval (SI) based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 provinces. These data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted well. The mean of TG was 5.2 days (95% CI: 4.6–5.8). The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days (95% CI: 1.5–3.2). The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed well. Eight provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to 3.14. Measures should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.
