A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios

Abstract

Marine biota and biogeophysical mechanisms, such as phytoplankton light absorption, have attracted increasing attention in recent climate studies. Under global warming, the influence of phytoplankton on the climate system is expected to change. Previous studies analyzed the impact of phytoplankton light absorption under prescribed future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the role of this biogeophysical mechanism under freely evolving atmospheric CO2 concentration and future CO2 emissions remains unknown. To shed light on this research gap, we perform simulations with the EcoGEnIE Earth system model (ESM) and prescribe CO2 emissions out to the year 2500 following the four Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP) scenarios, which for practical purposes we call Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Under all RCP scenarios, our results indicate that phytoplankton light absorption leads to a shallower remineralization of organic matter and a reduced export efficiency, weakening the biological carbon pump. In contrast, this biogeophysical mechanism increases the surface chlorophyll by ∼ 2 %, the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2 to 0.6 °C, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 8 %–20 % and the atmospheric temperature by 0.3 to 0.9 °C. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the magnitude of changes due to phytoplankton light absorption is similar. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in the climate system are less pronounced due to decreasing ecosystem productivity as temperature increases, highlighting a reduced effect of phytoplankton light absorption under strong warming. Additionally, this work highlights the major role of phytoplankton light absorption on the climate system, suggesting highly uncertain feedbacks on the carbon cycle with uncertainties that may be in the range of those known from the land biota.