Risk stratification of thromboembolic complications development in surgical patients

Abstract

Aim. Creating a mathematically based scale of risk stratification of thromboembolic complications in patients with acute abdominal organs pathology requiring urgent surgical treatment.Material and Methods. This work is based on data from 185 case reports of patients with acute surgical diseases of the abdominal organs that had undergone emergency operations. Clinical and statistical analyses were carried out and the most significant risk factors for venous thromboembolic complications were identified. By digitally estimating the specific gravity of each of the factors, the method of sequential probability ratio criterion was applied to the obtained data.Results and Discussion. Based on a retrospective analysis of clinical records, 13 most informative prognostic criteria for thromboembolic complications formed in the prognostic table were identified. Each sign, depending on its value, had a specific gravity. For the convenient using of the prognostic scale in practice, the indicators of natural logarithms are translated into arbitrary units (points). The results are checked on available archival records. The overall forecast reliability was 97%.Conclusion. The proposed prognostic scale made it possible to optimize the likelihood of a feasibility study in patients with acute diseases of the abdominal organs.

Keywords

• thromboembolic complications
• prognosis
• prognostic scale
• risk stratification