Estimating the size of populations at risk for malaria: a case study in cattle herders and agricultural workers in Northern Namibia

Abstract

Abstract Cattle herders and agricultural workers have been identified has key high-risk populations for malaria in northern Namibia. Population size estimates for these groups are lacking but are important for planning, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of targeted strategies towards malaria elimination in the region. In this analysis, we extend population size estimation methods routinely used in HIV research, specifically social mapping and multiple source capture-recapture, to the context of malaria to estimate how many cattle herders and agricultural workers lived in two regions of northern Namibia over the course of the 2019–2020 malaria season. Both methods estimated two to three times more agricultural workers than cattle herders but size estimates based on the multiple source capture-recapture method were two to three times greater than the mapping-based, highlighting important methodological considerations to apply such methods to these highly mobile populations. In particular, we compared open versus closed populations assumptions for the capture-recapture method and assessed the impact of sensitivity analyses on the procedure to link records across multiple data sources on population size estimates. Our results are important for national control programs to target their resources and consider integrating routine population size estimation of high risk populations in their surveillance activities.