Creation of Armed Forces in NATO Member States: Promising Models of Germany and Norway

Abstract

Introduction. One of the key tendencies of modern international development is the growing importance of the “factor of power”. In this context, the initiated long process of the potential growth of the armed forces of the countries participating in NATO, which is of particular importance in the growth of new unconventional threats (one of the triggers of the Alliance transformation including through the strengthening of national units has become a global pandemic) is important from scientific and practical points of view. Methods and materials. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the theory of building armed forces. The basic sources for the analysis are official documents of military departments, as well as materials from related information centers, which reveal the parameters of the prospective appearance of the armed forces of the countries under study. NATO’s statistical and summit reports also occupy a special place. Analysis. The goal of the article is the research of the armed forces building processes in Germany and Norway for the future until the mid-2030s. These case countries can show the tendencies of military development of NATO European member states in the whole taking into account the differences between Germany and Norway in terms of the geographical location, the population as the main human resource of the armed forces, as well as the transformation of leadership and dynamics of relations between the “historical West” and the Russian Federation, which allows us to characterize the overall trends in the military and political development of European NATO member states. Results. It is proved that the growth of military potential is based on two main groups of reasons. The first is due to the strategic deterioration of relations between the West and Russia since the mid-2010s. The second is that the armed forces of the European member States of NATO have reached the “bottom” position in terms of almost all quantitative parameters. The continuing trend of decreasing numerical indicators (people and technology) threatens to reduce the role of the state on the world stage. Therefore, it is natural to see Germany’s desire to become a “framework nation” in the recruitment of NATO rotation groups in Europe, as well as in the deployment of peacebuilding and peacekeeping missions outside the area of responsibility of the Alliance, which inevitably leads to a large-scale increase in the number of armed forces and the cost of their modernization. In the case of Norway the transformation of the armed forces occurs in the conditions of refusal to increase included human resources and enhance the value of the military presence of NATO partners (primarily the US) first of all in the process of reorganizing the national system of territorial defense. In both cases, there are still tendencies to transform the role of the US in Europe and to consolidate the confrontation with the Russian Federation.