Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan.

Abstract

BackgroundTo control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC).ObjectThis study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes.MethodsA simple susceptible-infected-recovered model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 26. The respective reproduction numbers for periods before VECSC (R0), during VECSC (Re), and after VECSC (Ra) were estimated.ResultsResults suggest R0 before VECSC as 2.534 [2.449, 2.598], Re during VECSC as 1.077 [0.948, 1.228], and Ra after VECSC as 4.455 [3.615, 5.255].Discussion and conclusionResults demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but after VECSC, the value of the reproduction number rose to exceed 4.0.