Contemporary Temperature Fluctuation in Urban Areas of Pakistan

Abstract

Annual temperature data from thirty meteorological stations in Pakistan’s major urban areas were selected to investigate trends in annual average and maximum temperature during 1970–2009. A combination of parametric and non-parametric tests including linear regression, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator was used for the analysis. Annual average and maximum temperature series showed an overall increasing trend for 90% of the stations and a decreasing trend for 10% of the stations in the study area. The highest significant increment of annual average temperature was observed at Gilgit, Hyderabad, Quetta and Lasbela stations at the rate of 0.49 °C per decade. The highest increment of annual maximum temperature was obtained at Chitral, Gilgit, Nawabshah and Quetta at the rate of 0.31 °C per decade. According to simple linear regression and the Mann-Kendall test, the annual average temperature showed a significant increasing trend for 43% of the stations (at a 0.001 level of significance) and 23% of the stations (at the 0.05 level). Annual maximum temperature showed a significant increasing trend for 26% of the stations (at the 0.001 level of significance) and 23% of the stations (at the 0.05 level). In general, the results showed increasing trends for the considered parameters, although annual average temperature showed a higher increasing rate than annual maximum temperature during the study period.

Keywords

• urban areas
• temperature trends
• parametric and non-parametric tests
• Pakistan