Novel Use of Image Time Series to Distinguish Dryland Vegetation Responses to Wet and Dry Years

Abstract

Remote sensing methods are commonly used to assess and monitor ecosystem conditions in drylands, but accurate classification and detection of ecological state change are challenging due to sparse vegetation cover, high spatial heterogeneity, and high interannual variability in production. We evaluated whether phenological metrics are effective for distinguishing dryland ecological states using imagery from near-surface camera (PhenoCam) and satellite (Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2, hereafter HLS) sources, and how effectiveness varied across wet and dry rainfall years. We analyzed time series over 92 site-years at a site in southern New Mexico undergoing transitions from grassland to shrubland on different soil types. Rainfall was a driver of phenological response across all ecological states, with wet years correlating with later start of season, later peak, higher peak greenness, and shorter growing season. This rainfall response was strongest in shrub-invaded grasslands on sandy soils. PhenoCam estimated significantly earlier start of season than HLS for shrublands on gravelly soils and earlier end of season than HLS for shrub-invaded grasslands on sandy soils. We propose integrating seasonal metrics from high-frequency PhenoCam time series with satellite assessments to improve monitoring efforts in drylands, use phenological differences across variable rainfall years to measure differences in ecosystem function among states, and use the timing and strength of peak greenness of key plant functional groups (grasses in our study site) as an indicator of ecological state change.