Estimation of Large Household Appliances Stock in the Residential Sector and Forecasting of Stock Electricity Consumption: Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Analyses

Abstract

Energy efficiency offers a wide variety of opportunities that will provide efficient resource utilization, alleviate the pressure of energy costs on the economy and reduce foreign energy dependency, and support in combating the harmful effects of climate change. This paper aims to develop necessary data sets to guide policymakers in their decision-making process to identify energy efficiency policy options through an ex-post analysis. One of the targets of this paper is to determine the large household appliances stock and its electricity consumption, which constitutes an important share in residential electricity consumption over the period of 2005-2019. In light of the findings from the ex-post analysis, electricity consumption scenarios for large household appliances were developed from 2020 to 2030. According to the results, the total stock consumption of the refrigerator and washing machine appliances has reached a plateau, leaving behind an increasing trend due to the improvements in efficiency despite the growth in the stock amounts. Besides, the electricity consumption of freezer, tumble dryer, and dishwasher stock has increased significantly due to the increase in the household ownership rates. The analyses also showed that the total electricity consumption of the large household appliances’ stock increased from 17,973 GWh in 2005 to 23,067 GWh in 2019. In addition, the ex-ante analysis revealed that the electricity consumption of refrigerator stock would show most likely a downward trend until 2030, while deep freezers, tumble dryers, dishwashers, and electric ovens stocks would demand more electricity with the increase in ownership rates. However, the analysis showed an uncertain pathway for the electricity consumption of washing machine stock since annual sales during the projection period would show in which direction their consumption would evolve.

Keywords

• stock accounting modeling
• large household appliances
• forecasting of electricity consumption
• electricity consumption in the residential sector