Modelling incidence and mortality cancer parameters with respect to GLOBOCAN 2020Age standardized world estimates

Abstract

In this paper, an empirical model with the critical number of incidences and deaths for female cancers as adjustable parameters has been developed using life expectancy data from GLOBOCAN world estimates on cancer types. The model was developed based on the cumulative risk and exponential correlation techniques such that the significance of the adjustable parameters ascertains the strength of this research in two ways. First, it indicates indicates the rapid increase in female cancer morbidity with increase in the number of male cancer cases, regardless of incidence or mortality. Second, it suggests that female cancer cases may approach a virtual limiting value as male cancer cases reach extremely high levels. This projection aligns with the global population trends, indicating a proportional increase in cancer cases each year. Additionally, the cumulative risk of cancer incidences of each sex has been modelled separately against the global cumulative risk of cancer incidences of both sexes which revealed regions that have passed their inflection point and those that are yet to reach the inflection point. There was a curvature change, which indicates an inflection point coinciding with the South-Eastern Region and indicating that for the regions beyond the inflection point, the increase of the cumulative risk of cancer incidences of females against that of males is more accentuated compared with the regions before the inflection point. However, when the cumulative risk of cancer mortality of each sex is modelled separately against the global cumulative risk of cancer mortality of both sexes shows a non-linear dependence and the increase is more accentuated for males than for females. This finding indicates that cumulative risk is influenced by factors beyond the male-female population ratio. This study advances cancer studies as it provides a nuanced understanding of gender-specific cancer trends, crucial for developing targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies. By elucidating the dynamics of cancer incidences and mortalities across different regions and sexes, the findings can inform public health policies and resource allocation to combat cancer more effectively on a global scale.

Keywords

• Cancer
• GLOBOCAN
• Cumulative incidence
• Mortality
• Age Standardised