GERT method and simulation modeling for probabilistic resource analysis in agricultural processes

Abstract

The article presents the results of a probabilistic analysis of resources in agricultural processes. The authors performed a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of using the GERT method for assessing the probabilistic-time characteristics of processes with simulation modeling in the Anylogic environment. For the study, the process of “Approval of an application for the purchase of agricultural products” is described. This process is first presented in the ARIS eEPC notation, and then it is translated into the GERT network. Based on the obtained model, the process completion time was predicted. The mathematical expectation and variance of the process execution were calculated. Based on the results obtained, conclusions were drawn regarding labor intensity and accuracy. It is shown that the GERT network and the simulation model are close in accuracy. However, for the given task, the GERT method is a less labor-intensive and more accurate method. This study is important for managing and optimizing processes in agricultural enterprises to improve the efficiency of decision making.