Critical analysis of the ULF power depression as a possible Tohoku earthquake precursorKey points

Abstract

Among electromagnetic methods of short-term earthquake prediction, an approach is being actively developed based on the phenomenon of magnetic ultra-low-frequency (ULF) power depression occurring a few days before an earthquake. In particular, a nighttime geomagnetic power depression in the band 0.03–0.05 Hz was observed approximately 5 days before the catastrophic Tohoku 2011 earthquake. To verify the reliability of this method, we performed an extended analysis using data from magnetometer arrays JMA, MAGDAS, PWING, and INTERMAGNET. The selected stations included sites close to the epicenter (<300 km) and remote points (∼10000 km). The band-integrated spectral power of nighttime magnetic noise decreased significantly from March 6–9, several days before the earthquake. However, such variations occur simultaneously not only at nearby stations but also at distant stations. During this event, the ULF power depression was caused by low global geomagnetic activity, as evidenced by the planetary index SME. Thus, the depression of geomagnetic ULF noise cannot be considered a reliable short-term precursor.

Keywords

• earthquake forecast
• seismo-electromagnetic phenomena
• ultra-low frequency (ULF) pulsations