A predictive model for lack of partial clinical remission in new-onset pediatric type 1 diabetes.

Abstract

>50% of patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) do not enter partial clinical remission (PCR); early identification of these patients may improve initial glycemic control and reduce long-term complications.To determine whether routinely obtainable clinical parameters predict non-remission in children and adolescents with new-onset T1D.Data on remission were collected for the first 36 months of disease in 204 subjects of ages 2-14 years with new-onset type 1 diabetes. There were 86 remitters (age 9.1±3.0y; male 57%), and 118 non-remitters (age 7.0±3.1y; male 40.7%). PCR was defined as insulin-dose adjusted hemoglobin A1c of ≤9.Non-remission occurred in 57.8% of subjects. Univariable analysis showed that the risk for non-remission was increased 9-fold in patients with 4 diabetes-associated auto-antibodies (OR = 9.90, p = 0.010); 5-fold in patients 3 diabetes-associated autoantibodies had an area under the curve of 0.73.More than 50% of children and adolescents with new-onset T1D do not undergo partial clinical remission and are thus at an increased risk for long-term complications of diabetes mellitus. A predictive model comprising of bicarbonate 3 diabetes-associated autoantibodies has 73% power for correctly predicting non-remission in children and adolescents with new-onset T1D. Early identification of these non-remitters may guide the institution of targeted therapy to limit dysglycemia and reduce the prevalence of long-term deleterious complications.