Scientific Reports (Oct 2024)
Cost-effective and optimal control analysis for mitigation strategy to chocolate spot disease of faba bean
Abstract
Abstract Faba bean is one of the most important grown plants worldwide for human and animal. Despite its various importance, the productivity of faba bean has been constrained by several biotic and abiotic factors. Many faba bean pathogens have been reported so far, of which the most important yield limiting disease is Chocolate Spot Disease (Botrytis fabae). The dynamics of disease transmission and decision-making processes for intervention programs for disease control are now better understood through the use of mathematical modeling. In this paper a deterministic mathematical model for Chocolate Spot disease (CSD) on faba bean plant with an optimal control model was developed and analyzed to examine the best strategy in controlling CSD. The optimal control model is developed with three control interventions, namely prevention ( $$u_{1}$$ u 1 ), quarantine ( $$u_{2}$$ u 2 ) and chemical control ( $$u_{3}$$ u 3 ). The Pontryagin’€™s maximum principle isused to derive the Hamiltonian, the adjoint variables, the characterization of the controls and the optimality system. A cost-effective approach is chosen from a set of possible integrated strategies using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The forward-backward sweep iterative approach is used to run numerical simulations. We obtained the Hamiltonian, the adjoint variables, the characterization of the controls and the optimality system. The numerical results demonstrate that each integrated strategy can reduce the diseases within the specified period. However due to limited resources, an integrated strategy prevention and uprooting was found to be a best cost-effective strategy to combat CSD. Therefore, attention should be given for the integrated cost-effective and environmentally eco-friendly strategy by stake holders and policy makers to control CSD and disseminate the integrated intervention to the farmers in order to fight the spread of CSD in the Faba bean population and produce the expected yield from the field.
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