Effects of seasonal climate forecasts on livelihood outcomes: a case of smallholder farmers in rural Zambia

Abstract

Abstract In as much as seasonal climate forecasts are an essential tool for supporting livelihoods in rainfed agriculture production, the effects of seasonal climate forecasts on income and yield at the agro ecological zone and wealth quartile levels are not sufficiently researched in Zambia. In order to close this gap, we focused on investigating the impacts of using climate information on productivity and income, while using an endogenous switching regression on a representative subnational and national level data from 7241 agricultural households. Using STATA 17 for analysis, the study found that smallholder farmers who integrated seasonal climate forecasts outperformed those who did not have the information, achieving higher yields (421.54 kg/ha). The localized effects of seasonal forecasting by agro ecological zone indicated that low rainfall areas had significant yield gains than other zones, and wealth results for wealth quartiles showed that farmers in higher quartiles had better yield (126.14 kg/ha) and income (1509.44 kg/ha) gains.. This study therefore recommends that policymakers develop policies and strategies that are region-specific to foster climate awareness to and integration of adaptation techniques by farmers. Additionally, the study also recommends the provision of social safety net to less-endowed farmers as well as investing in better early warning systems to enhance participation in using forecasted information for a sustainable future.

Keywords

• Endogenous switching regression
• Seasonal climate forecast
• Smallholder
• Zambia