Using a Layered Ensemble of Physics-Guided Graph Attention Networks to Predict COVID-19 Trends

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly and significantly impacted most countries in the world. Providing an accurate forecast of COVID-19 at multiple scales would help inform public health decisions, but recent forecasting models are typically used at the state or country level. Furthermore, traditional mathematical models are limited by simplifying assumptions, while machine learning algorithms struggle to generalize to unseen trends. This motivates the need for hybrid machine learning models that integrate domain knowledge for accurate long-term prediction. We propose a three-layer, geographically informed ensemble, an extensive peer-learning framework, for predicting COVID-19 trends at the country, continent, and global levels. As the base layer, we develop a country-level predictor using a hybrid Graph Attention Network that incorporates a modified SIR model, adaptive loss function, and edge weights informed by mobility data. We aggregated 163 country GATs to train the continent and world MLP layers of the ensemble. Our results indicate that incorporating quantitatively accurate equations and real-world data to model inter-community interactions improves the performance of spatio-temporal machine learning algorithms. Additionally, we demonstrate that integrating geographic information (continent composition) improves the performance of the world predictor in our layered architecture.