Ecosystem damage by increasing tropical cyclones

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is driving an ongoing increase in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While global economic losses are projected to double by 2100, there are no comparable predictions for TC impacts to coastal ecosystems that protect and sustain human lives and livelihoods. Here, rising North Atlantic TC (NATC) activity from 1970 to 2019, influenced by anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, is used to study the ecosystem impacts of intensifying TCs, potentially indicative of broader future climate change scenarios. Analysis of 97 NATC landfalls revealed 891 immediate post-storm impacts on ecosystems, with particularly detrimental effects on mangrove forests. Specifically, NATCs reduced the performance of individual species. Additionally, they altered community structure and processes through impacts on foundation species and their associated organisms. The severity of impacts was directly correlated with NATC landfall intensity (wind speed) for mangroves, whereas changes to waves, surge, sediments, and salinity caused most impacts on coral reefs, salt marshes, seagrass meadows, and oyster reefs (respectively), indicating complex intensity-damage interactions for many ecosystems. The analyses also revealed a positive correlation between very intense NATC activity and ecosystem damages. The research highlights a concerning trend of escalating impacts on coastal ecosystems under rising storm intensities, with the potential to challenge ecosystem resilience.