Urban and rural patterns of typhoon mortality in the Philippines

Abstract

Storms continue to be the deadliest type of weather-related disasters globally. The Philippines is one of the most at risk countries to disasters, yet there continues to be gaps in understanding where and why people are killed in typhoons – the country's most prominent natural hazard. This research sought to understand how typhoon mortality varies across the Philippines at the municipal level, focusing on differences in rural and urban municipalities between 2005 and 2015. Generalised linear regression models (GLMs), including Poisson and negative binomial (NB), were used to analyse the relationship between typhoon mortality and level of urbanisation while controlling for social vulnerability and typhoon exposure. Findings indicate that typhoon mortality is disproportionality concentrated in emerging, rather than established, urban centres. Deaths from typhoons were significantly higher per capita in older age groups and amongst men, with drowning accounting for 71% of deaths, although there is uncertainty in these later trends which show the need for investment in national disaster databases. Our results make contributions to understanding of urban-rural patterns of disaster risk and the determinants of typhoon mortality in the Philippines.

Keywords

• Disasters
• Mortality
• Typhoons
• Storms
• Philippines