Analyzing the Impacts of Serial Correlation and Shift on the Streamflow Variability within the Climate Regions of Contiguous United States

Abstract

The spatiotemporal hydrologic variability over different regions of the contiguous United States poses the risk of droughts and floods. Understanding the historic variations in streamflow can help in accessing future hydrologic conditions. The current study investigates the historic changes in the streamflow within the climate regions of the continental United States. The streamflow records of 419 unimpaired streamflow stations were grouped into seven climate regions based on the National Climate Assessment, to evaluate the regional changes in both seasonal streamflow and yearly streamflow percentiles. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were utilized to evaluate the streamflow variability as a gradual trend and abrupt shift, respectively. The Walker test was performed to test the global significance of the streamflow variability within each climate region based on local trend and shift significance of each streamflow station. The study also evaluated the presence of serial correlation in the streamflow records and its effects on both trend and shift within the climate regions of the contiguous United States for the first time. Maximum variability in terms of both trend and shift was observed for summer as compared to other seasons. Similarly, a greater number of stations showed streamflow variability for 5th and 50th percentile streamflow as compared to 95th and 100th percentile streamflow. It was also observed that serial correlation affected both trends and steps, while accounting for the lag-1 autocorrelation improved shift results. The results indicated that the streamflow variability has more likely occurred as shift as compared to the gradual trend. The outcomes of the current result detailing historic variability may help to envision future changes in streamflow. The current study may favor the water managers in developing future decisions to resolve the issues related to the streamflow variability in flood and drought-prone regions.

Keywords

• trend
• shift
• persistence
• streamflow
• climate region
• variability