Ain Shams Engineering Journal (Mar 2021)
Prediction of changes in climatic parameters using CanESM2 model based on Rcp scenarios (case study): Lar dam basin
Abstract
By technology development and industrialization of human societies, we have seen an increase in greenhouse gases produced in the earth that causes the occurrence of climate change. By disturbing the balance in different parts of the earth we have seen negative results like a flood, drought, etc., so based on the importance that climate change has on the earth and its residents, and long term prediction of climate parameters has always been of interest. One of the most popular and appropriate methods for evaluation of future climate is using atmosphere general circulation model that by using micro scaling models and different scenarios of climate change, it tries to predict climatic parameters for the future. this research, for predicting climatic parameters in Lar dam basin by using SDSM micro scaling model and by using temperature and daily rainfall of synoptic station area in base period (1984–1995) one wants to create statistical downscaling to estimate climatic oscillations, also model efficiency amount evaluated based on correlation coefficient statistical test R2 and standard error (RMSE) that results confirmed relative and acceptable adaptation of simulated values by model and observed values in basic period (observations), in next level by using outputs of CanESM2 model and based on 3 scenarios of Rcp11 Representative Concentration Pathway. 2/6, Rcp 4/5 and Rcp 8/5 they predicted parameters of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall in period of years (2020–2060). The results of this research show that the temperature average in the considered region (1/01 to 1/12 degree centigrade) and the average rainfall amount increases by about 21/23 percent based on three considered scenarios. By regarding gained results in period (2020–2060) Lar dam region witnessing tangible climate change towards current situation that by regarding Lar dam strategic situation in this region and issue of water supply by the dam, long term and strategic planning is necessary for the management of these conditions.
