Using EMS data to explore community-level factors associated with firearm violence in North Carolina

Abstract

Abstract Background Firearm violence is a significant public health issue. However, it is unclear if there is an association between the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the intent of both fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries, and if these associations are modified by community race and ethnic composition. This study examines the association between community-level social vulnerability and firearm injury incidence in North Carolina (NC) using 2021–2022 emergency medical services (EMS) data. Additionally, it investigates how these associations vary by the intent of injury (assault, self-inflicted, and unintentional), and whether they are modified by community racial/ethnic composition. Methods This cross-sectional study utilized NC EMS data, capturing firearm incidents from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022. The SVI from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was used to assess community-level vulnerability. The SVI’s racial/ethnic minority status component was removed for stratification analysis. Firearm injury rates were calculated per 100,000 population, and negative binomial regression models were used to estimate Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs) for different SVI levels and intents of firearm injuries. Results During the study period, we identified 7,250 EMS encounters at non-healthcare locations related to firearm injuries, encompassing 2,648 NC census tracts. Assault was the leading cause of firearm injuries (n = 3,799), followed by self-inflicted (n = 1,498), and unintentional injuries (n = 722). High-SVI communities had significantly higher rates of firearm injuries compared to low-SVI communities, particularly for assault-related injuries. When the minority status component was excluded from SVI, racial/ethnic minority status emerged as a significant modifier, with higher rates of firearm injuries being observed in communities with larger racial/ethnic minority populations. Conclusion Community-level social vulnerability is significantly associated with firearm injury incidence, with the effect being more pronounced in racial/ethnic minority communities. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health interventions that address underlying social determinants of health (e.g., access to education) to reduce firearm violence. Future research should further explore the intersection of social vulnerability and racial/ethnic composition to develop effective prevention strategies.