Iranian South Medical Journal (Mar 2022)
Strategies for the Future of Medicine in Iran Based on a Scenario Planning
Abstract
Background: The rapid and increasing growth of technology in the artificial intelligence era and its impact on fundamentals changes in the development of science including biomedicine and health presents a need for the future studies in medical sciences. This project is striving to provide a desirable model based on authentic forecasting models in order to clarify the probable and uncertain futures of medicine and health in Iran, with their complexities. Methods: The Jay Ogilvy’s eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting was engaged in a five phases model including the identification approach (phase 1) for detection of paradigms in medicine; the extrapolation approach (phase 2) for detection of megatrends and key technologies in medicine and healthcare; the convergence approach (phase 3) for discovering of critical uncertainties and achieving to the logic of scenario; the creative approach (phase 4) for composition of the scenario and technology roadmap; the policy making approach (phase 5) for planning of strategies and tactics. Results: In the first phase, it was revealed that the realm of medicine is under a huge disruption and the current medicine is going to systems medicine with precision medicine in its scope. In the second phase, it was clarified that the convergence of knowledge, technology and society (CKTS) is a megatrend that drives medical sciences to “deep medicine”. In the third phase, it was unfolded that CKTS and “deep medicine” including deep phenotyping of the patient using multiple omics technologies are cardinal key points that not realization of their goals in Iran would lead to a deep and critical gap in advanced and updated medicine and healthcare between Iran and the developed countries. In the fourth phase, four possible scenarios for the future of medicine and healthcare in Iran were described in which the ideal scenario would be flourishing of deep medicine along CKTS. In the fifth phase, three strategies were developed in order to realize the ideal scenario including 1/ the establishment of knowledge regions, mediated by universities; 2/ moving toward digital health and artificial intelligence; 3/ driving forces for precision medicine Conclusion: The establishment of infrastructures and preparedness for realizing precision medicine and moving toward digital health and artificial intelligence are crucial strategies to achieve the ideal future of medicine in Iran. These important issues should be considered as national priorities by policy makers and programmers in the realm of medical sciences.
