Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the variability and trends of the current climate using the coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hand, future climate changes (2018–2050) were analyzed based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) model outputs under under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature in the studied watershed over the last four decades. The annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall showed a generally increasing trend, while the Belg (March–May) rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend between 1986 and 2017. Conversely, the minimum, maximum and mean temperature demonstrated increasing trends over the study period although most of the detected trends were statistically insignificant at 5 and 10% level of significance. Future climate analysis results showed an increase in future temperature and annual and Kiremt rainfall while Belg rainfall declined. HIGHLIGHTS Both the current and future rainfall and temperature changes and variability were analysed.; Five CMIP5 model outputs and two emission scenarios were considered for analysis of future climate.; Mapping the spatial distribution of rainfall and PCI is essential for water use planning and policy making.; Evaluation of seasonal climate variability and change is vital for rain-fed agriculture, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia.; Mann-Kendall test and coefficient of variation were found to be important techniques for analysis of climate variability and trends.;

Keywords

• climate projections
• mann–kendall test
• rainfall and temperature
• rain-fed agriculture