Ежегодник Япония (Dec 2022)
50th Anniversary of the Normalization of Sino-Japanese Relations: Outcomes and Problems
Abstract
The article is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations. The author analyzes the development of Sino-Japanese relations, paying special attention to economic interaction, changes in geopolitical situation, and ways of overcoming internal challenges and external threats. The two main trends in the Sino-Japanese relations over the last 50 years are deepening of economic interdependence between the two countries and change of their roles in both economy and politics, primarily due to the growing influence of China. Successful economic reforms carried out in China in the 1980s and 1990s opened up new prospects for the countries and led to a tremendous increase in trade and investment. However, while in the 1980s Chinese economy was more dependent on trade with Japan than vice versa, by the 2000s the situation changed and, during the COVID-19 pandemic, China even became a locomotive of Japan’s economic recovery. China has also overtaken Japan as an influential political player. This has forced Japan to seek security guarantees and opportunities to build up its military potential in order to counter the Chinese threat. Despite the intention to establish relations of peace and friendship, the countries are still unable to resolve a number of issues related to historical memory. Besides serious tensions remain in the East China Sea around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyudao islands. The issue of Taiwan also remains a dangerous flash point for conflict. Other recent challenges are the COVID-19 pandemic and the situation around Ukraine, which, the Japanese side thinks, might be repeated with Taiwan. All this still poses a threat to the stability of Sino-Japanese relations. The ability of the two countries to draw lessons from history and to resolve differences through dialogue gives hope that the conflicts will be settled.
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