Cholera Forecast for the Year 2019 Based on Assessment of Epidemiological Situation Around the World, Across CIS and Russia in 2009–2018

Abstract

Analysis of cholera incidence for the period of 2009–2018 was performed. The upward tendency in the morbidity rate dynamics around the world (compared to 2009) with an average annual growth rate of 5,352 % was revealed. For the first time during the 7th pandemic caused by V. cholerae O1 El Tor, WHO reported 1227391 cases of cholera world-wide in 2017, out of which 1032481 (84.1%) were registered in Yemen, where the war continues and one of the largest epidemics in the world. There have been cross-border epidemiological complications in several African countries. Endemic foci continue to exist and spread in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Under the epidemiological surveillance in Russia, 744 strains of V. cholerae El Tor – ctxA– tcpA–, ctxA– tcpA+ and V. cholerae О139 ctxA– and tcpA– were isolated from the surface water bodies, as well as single strains of El Tor ctxA+ tcpA+. As a result of INDEL- and PCR-genotyping, the isolation of strains with identical genotypes and new ones was established. To make the prognosis for 2019, the risk of activation (continuation) of the cholera epidemic process in the world was assessed, taking into account emergencies of different origin and risk factors. The cholera forecast at the global level and in Russia for 2019 is unfavorable.

Keywords

• cholera
• epidemic
• importation
• endemic areas
• v. cholerae o1
• forecast