Wieloletnia prognoza finansowa a zrównoważenie finansów sektora samorządowego. Przykład największych miast w Polsce

Abstract

The aim of the article is to assess the degree of financial sustainability of the largest cit¬ies in Poland. The analyzes were carried out for the 7 cities with the highest number of inhabitants (as of 2016). Long-term budget constraints were used as the research method. They were tested in the context of the no-Ponzi condition. The first phase of the study used historical data from 2007-2015. The same calculations were then made for the data recorded in the city's multi-annual financial forecasts (MFF). The results of the ex post investigation show that all the cities were far from fiscal sustainability. The results of the ex ante data estimations are much more optimistic. On one hand the results undermine the credibility of MFF as the appropriate instrument for local government finance management; on the other hand, they show that the surveyed cities have been able to generate primary surpluses but these surpluses turn out to be insufficient to cover the existing levels public liabilities.

Keywords

• Sustainability
• borrowing
• deficit