Frontiers in Medicine (Jun 2021)

Estimating the Prevalence of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases and Their Contribution in Transmission - Using Henan Province, China, as an Example

  • Chunyu Li,
  • Yuchen Zhu,
  • Chang Qi,
  • Lili Liu,
  • Dandan Zhang,
  • Xu Wang,
  • Kaili She,
  • Yan Jia,
  • Tingxuan Liu,
  • Daihai He,
  • Momiao Xiong,
  • Xiujun Li

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.591372
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8

Abstract

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Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example.Methods: We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, Rt.Results: The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R0 = 2.73, and Rt dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures.Conclusion: The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.

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