Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England

Matt J. Keeling; Louise Dyson; Michael J. Tildesley; Edward M. Hill; Samuel Moore

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0

Nature Communications (Aug 2022)

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England

Matt J. Keeling,
Louise Dyson,
Michael J. Tildesley,
Edward M. Hill,
Samuel Moore

Affiliations

Matt J. Keeling: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick
Louise Dyson: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick
Michael J. Tildesley: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick
Edward M. Hill: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick
Samuel Moore: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 13, no. 1
pp. 1 – 19

Abstract

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The ’Roadmap’ for relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England in 2021 was informed by mathematical modelling. Here, the authors perform a retrospective assessment of the accuracy of modelling predictions and identify the main sources of uncertainty that led to observed values deviating from projections.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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