Fiscal Policy Determinants of Health Spending in India: State Versus Center

Abstract

This study uses data from 1986 to 2021 and the auto-regressive distributed lag model to explore India’s fiscal policy determinants of government health spending. The results find two structural breaks in time: (i) 2002 for state government health spending (SGHS) and (ii) 2014 for central government health spending. The results also show that central revenue transfers to states have a positive and statistically significant effect on SGHS in the long run. The results imply that a 1% rise in central revenue transfers to states leads to a 0.399% increase in SGHS. Further, state government public debt exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship with SGHS, implying that a 1% rise in public debt leads to a 0.119% fall in SGHS in the long run. Fiscal management (i.e., revenue mobilization and debt sustainability) is essential to prepare a long-term strategy for health-care financing.

Keywords

• auto-regressive distributed lag model
• fiscal policy
• government debt
• government health spending
• government revenue