Fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Approach for Spreading of Diseases

Abstract

The nonlinear fractional stochastic differential equation approach with Hurst parameter H within interval H∈(0,1) to study the time evolution of the number of those infected by the coronavirus in countries where the number of cases is large as Brazil is studied. The rises and falls of novel cases daily or the fluctuations in the official data are treated as a random term in the stochastic differential equation for the fractional Brownian motion. The projection of novel cases in the future is treated as quadratic mean deviation in the official data of novel cases daily since the beginning of the pandemic up to the present. Moreover, the rescaled range analysis (RS) is employed to determine the Hurst index for the time series of novel cases and some statistical tests are performed with the aim to determine the shape of the probability density of novel cases in the future.

Keywords

• fractional Brownian motion
• spreading