Forecasting Indicators of the Region Intellectual Potential

Abstract

This study established that in the conditions of Russian aggression, one of the most important factors for the recovery of Ukraine's economy is the effective use and multiplication of the existing intellectual potential of the regions. It was determined that the main structural elements of the intellectual potential of the region are educational, scientific and innovative potential. Fractal analysis and forecasting of key indicators of the intellectual potential of the region were carried out. Within the framework of the educational potential of the region, the following indicators were studied: the coverage of children in preschool education institutions, the number of graduate students, the number of students in general secondary education institutions, the number of teachers in general secondary education institutions, the number of students and trainees in vocational and vocational education institutions. As part of the scientific potential, the indicator of the number of employees involved in the performance of scientific research and development was considered. Within the framework of innovation potential - the specific weight of enterprises that introduced innovations and the number of implemented new technological processes. As a result of the conducted fractal analysis, it was established that all indicators belong to the anti-persistent type of time series. Therefore, the method of exponential smoothing and moving average was used as forecasting. A negative trend in the development of the component indicators of the intellectual potential of the region was revealed. This requires appropriate decisive actions on the part of the authorities in order to activate and grow the educational, scientific and innovative potential, which will lead to the improvement of the indicator of the intellectual potential of the region and its positive impact on the indicators of economic efficiency.

Keywords

• forecasting
• fractal analysis
• exponential smoothing
• moving average
• intellectual potential