A Numerical Study of the Fractional Order Dynamical Nonlinear Susceptible Infected and Quarantine Differential Model Using the Stochastic Numerical Approach

Abstract

The theme of this study is to present the impacts and importance of the fractional order derivatives of the susceptible, infected and quarantine (SIQ) model based on the coronavirus with the lockdown effects. The purpose of these investigations is to achieve more accuracy with the use of fractional derivatives in the SIQ model. The integer, nonlinear mathematical SIQ system with the lockdown effects is also provided in this study. The lockdown effects are categorized into the dynamics of the susceptible, infective and quarantine, generally known as SIQ mathematical system. The fractional order SIQ mathematical system has never been presented before, nor solved by using the strength of the stochastic solvers. The stochastic solvers based on the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation scheme (LMBS) along with the neural networks (NNs), i.e., LMBS-NNs have been implemented to solve the fractional order SIQ mathematical system. Three cases using different values of the fractional order have been provided to solve the fractional order SIQ mathematical model. The data to present the numerical solutions of the fractional order SIQ mathematical model is selected as 80% for training and 10% for both testing and validation. For the correctness of the LMBS-NNs, the obtained numerical results have been compared with the reference solutions through the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton based numerical solver. In order to authenticate the competence, consistency, validity, capability and exactness of the LMB-NNs, the numerical performances using the state transitions (STs), regression, correlation, mean square error (MSE) and error histograms (EHs) are also provided.

Keywords

• SIQ mathematical model
• fractional order
• coronavirus
• Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation scheme
• neural networks
• Adams–Bashforth–Moulton