Low serum calcium is a novel predictor of unfavorable prognosis after traumatic brain injury

Abstract

Background: Accurate and convenient serological markers for prognosis after traumatic brain injury (TBI) are still lacking. We aimed to explore the predictive value of serum calcium for prognosing outcomes within 6 months after TBI. Methods: In this multicenter retrospective study, 1255 and 719 patients were included in development and validation cohorts, respectively, and their 6-month prognoses were recorded. Serum calcium was measured through routine blood tests within 24 h of hospital admission. Two multivariate predictive models with or without serum calcium for prognosis were developed. Receiver operating characteristics and calibration curves were applied to estimate their performance. Results: The patients with lower serum calcium levels had a higher frequency of unfavorable 6-month prognosis than those without. Lower serum calcium level at admission was associated with an unfavorable 6-month prognosis in a wide spectrum of patients with TBI. Lower serum calcium level and our prognostic model including calcium performed well in predicting the 6-month unfavorable outcome. The calcium nomogram maintained excellent performance in discrimination and calibration in the external validation cohort. Conclusions: Lower serum calcium level upon admission is an independent risk factor for an unfavorable 6-month prognosis after TBI. Integrating serum calcium into a multivariate predictive model improves the performance for predicting 6-month unfavorable outcomes.

Keywords

• Traumatic brain injury
• Serological ion marker
• Unfavorable prognosis
• Serum calcium
• Predictive nomogram