Relationship between the average annual temperature and the area of Amazonian humid forest in the departments of Peru, 2013-2021

Abstract

The present study analyzed the relationship between the average annual temperature and the area of Amazonian forest in the departments of Peru during the period 2013-2021, using a panel data model with random effects. The data used come from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) and include the average annual temperature in degrees Celsius and the area of Amazonian rainforest in thousands of hectares, both disaggregated by department. Additionally, CO2 emissions resulting from the loss of tree cover, measured in megatons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), were considered as a control variable. The results revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between the area of Amazonian forest and the average annual temperature, denoting that an increase of one thousand hectares in the extension of the forest corresponds to an increase of 0.0004 °C in temperature. In this sense, the finding contradicts the climate-regulating role played by forests, however, this is attributed to the influence of unobserved confounding variables that are linked to both forest area and temperature.