Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic

Tigist F. Menkir; Taylor Chin; James A. Hay; Erik D. Surface; Pablo M. De Salazar; Caroline O. Buckee; Alexander Watts; Kamran Khan; Ryan Sherbo; Ada W. C. Yan; Michael J. Mina; Marc Lipsitch; Rene Niehus

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8

Nature Communications (Jan 2021)

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic

Tigist F. Menkir,
Taylor Chin,
James A. Hay,
Erik D. Surface,
Pablo M. De Salazar,
Caroline O. Buckee,
Alexander Watts,
Kamran Khan,
Ryan Sherbo,
Ada W. C. Yan,
Michael J. Mina,
Marc Lipsitch,
Rene Niehus

Affiliations

Tigist F. Menkir: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Taylor Chin: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
James A. Hay: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Erik D. Surface: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Pablo M. De Salazar: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Caroline O. Buckee: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Alexander Watts: BlueDot
Kamran Khan: BlueDot
Ryan Sherbo: BlueDot
Ada W. C. Yan: Section of Immunology of Infection, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London
Michael J. Mina: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Marc Lipsitch: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
Rene Niehus: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

Read online

Sparse testing early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinders estimation of the dates and origins of initial case importations. Here, the authors show that the main source of cases imported from China shifted from Wuhan to other Chinese cities by mid-February, especially for African locations.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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