When will China’s carbon emissions peak? Evidence from judgment criteria and emissions reduction paths

Abstract

Scientifically judging the current state of carbon emissions in China and each province is a logical starting point for judging whether carbon emissions will peak or not by 2030. Using the Tapio decoupling model, this paper examines the carbon emissions peaking states of 30 provinces in China. The results show that carbon emissions in seven provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jilin, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Heilongjiang have peaked; nine provinces including Zhejiang, Henan, Shaanxi, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Qinghai have pseudo-peaks, that is, although carbon emissions have reached a peak for the moment, they may peak again in the future; carbon emissions in other provinces have not peaked. Further, this paper finds that the current emission reduction efforts are not enough to support the realization of the 2030 carbon emissions peaking goal through the Kaya model prediction. Among the provinces which have pseudo-peaks, Zhejiang, Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu are more difficult to achieve peaking, while Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, and Qinghai perform better under the enhanced low-carbon scenario. Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia are unlikely to reach their peaks in 2030 under any pre-set scenario.

Keywords

• Carbon emissions peak
• Decoupling
• Kaya model
• Policy tool